Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 22.656843 24.628766 26.753245 29.222416 32.026141 35.125997 38.833525
2026-01-11 19.687135 22.421169 25.571919 29.512690 34.368942 40.238034 47.995055
2026-01-18 17.387842 20.507367 24.292327 29.310356 35.927184 44.565029 57.073096
2026-01-25 15.681895 19.012931 23.224664 29.083580 37.268887 48.711879 66.755987
2026-02-01 14.425352 17.895615 22.438411 29.025787 38.714119 53.140584 77.838507
2026-02-08 13.367951 16.902684 21.666537 28.824553 39.838542 57.205735 89.348476
2026-02-15 12.474514 16.031073 20.945818 28.564223 40.770772 61.062940 101.542624
2026-02-22 11.719437 15.276240 20.301085 28.310866 41.628965 64.897438 114.849127
2026-03-01 11.099160 14.656323 19.784620 28.174952 42.625544 69.126052 130.411551
2026-03-08 10.541109 14.080513 19.276573 27.980807 43.466871 73.198112 147.178608
2026-03-15 10.317798 13.976265 19.467598 28.939953 46.499650 82.282983 180.661510
2026-03-22 9.850543 13.470882 18.988183 28.700885 47.237055 86.681952 203.679611
2026-03-29 9.452868 13.055100 18.632381 28.663334 48.411635 92.478315 235.043877
2026-04-05 9.157867 12.780104 18.483489 28.980432 50.361495 100.683490 281.068361
2026-04-12 8.793265 12.373218 18.086235 28.798447 51.235917 106.467759 323.284145
2026-04-19 8.453241 11.985763 17.693599 28.583909 52.006361 112.227644 371.540800
2026-04-26 8.168026 11.670423 17.401054 28.530461 53.131224 119.362552 435.505087
2026-05-03 7.881233 11.336947 17.054358 28.335347 53.896693 125.713280 504.836267
2026-05-10 7.606113 11.008708 16.695717 28.081790 54.484968 131.747892 583.108833
2026-05-17 7.351132 10.701618 16.355680 27.834692 55.054778 137.970335 676.240963
2026-05-24 7.129983 10.440843 16.082902 27.702102 55.899409 145.516977 800.360976
2026-05-31 6.914816 10.180371 15.795405 27.512584 56.570167 152.749525 945.489716
2026-06-07 6.866009 10.200716 16.022587 28.449005 60.447670 174.347987 1363.541556